Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to US$5,400/oz, up from US$4,900/oz, arguing the market is being driven by a structural shift in who is buying gold and why they are holding it.
The upgrade comes with gold already near fresh highs. Spot gold touched US$4,887.82/oz this week, extending a rally that saw prices surge roughly 64% in 2025 and rise more than 11% so far in 2026.
What’s behind the call?
1) Private-sector “policy hedge” buying is staying put
Goldman’s central assumption is that a growing cohort of private buyers — corporates, institutions and high-net-worth investors — is treating gold less as a tactical trade and more as a permanent insurance allocation against policy and macro uncertainty. The result is reduced selling pressure on rallies.
2) Central banks keep accumulating
Goldman expects emerging-market central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026 as reserve diversification continues. This steady, price-insensitive demand matters because it tends to be both persistent and disciplined.
3) Rate cuts could re-ignite Western ETF demand
The bank also highlights the potential for higher Western ETF holdings if the Federal Reserve delivers around 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2026. Lower real yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Why this isn’t a “normal commodity” setup
One of the more important framing points is that, unlike many commodities where high prices quickly incentivise new supply, gold supply responds slowly. The market is heavily influenced by how much existing stock is held versus released, allowing demand shifts to translate into more sustained price momentum.
The risk to the thesis
Goldman’s main caveat is straightforward. If markets become materially less concerned about long-run policy or monetary risks, some of the accumulated “macro hedge” gold could unwind, leaving prices short of the US$5,400 target.
Gold & silver standard take
Gold is increasingly being priced as insurance first and commodity second, a dynamic that tends to support higher price plateaus when the buyer base is long-term. For silver, a strong gold tape can be supportive, but silver typically remains more volatile given its mix of monetary and industrial demand.
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